Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.035779 34.589010 37.377922 40.674984 44.499113 48.836554 54.189795
2025-07-13 29.176357 32.756341 36.949087 42.318774 49.165256 57.835286 70.068897
2025-07-20 26.498092 30.419204 35.202305 41.636932 50.363740 62.301501 80.968393
2025-07-27 25.627207 30.052486 35.668904 43.610152 55.109390 72.270161 102.716329
2025-08-03 24.534244 29.234897 35.384237 44.427868 58.251591 80.518405 125.126868
2025-08-10 23.408693 28.242867 34.719454 44.552318 60.280524 87.384734 148.441850
2025-08-17 22.069213 26.846681 33.349944 43.439613 60.100114 90.263376 164.803342
2025-08-24 20.893035 25.588127 32.063885 42.295302 59.656977 92.496061 181.088461
2025-08-31 20.626621 25.560587 32.524814 43.892048 64.174022 105.913178 241.637282
2025-09-07 19.707583 24.552099 31.462559 42.914001 63.841866 108.764700 270.828014
2025-09-14 18.918269 23.685900 30.554125 42.099677 63.691831 112.019454 306.920224
2025-09-21 17.952857 22.521970 29.130422 40.304009 61.399350 109.450271 313.089581
2025-09-28 16.963482 21.390521 27.859810 38.965431 60.464499 111.817092 363.211488
2025-10-05 16.683544 21.293330 28.196222 40.488937 65.820317 134.451119 677.117202
2025-10-12 15.977464 20.512968 27.386924 39.856230 66.401491 143.569627 1025.211928
2025-10-19 15.828699 20.554840 27.887574 41.685887 73.095143 179.953814 6425.687739
2025-10-26 15.487578 20.276273 27.832807 42.442822 77.462546 213.794722 NaN
2025-11-02 15.064291 19.842871 27.480419 42.557957 80.212986 245.065846 NaN
2025-11-09 14.487034 19.137684 26.616044 41.527929 79.528238 256.460593 NaN
2025-11-16 13.947363 18.468627 25.775479 40.467191 78.548203 265.716535 NaN
2025-11-23 13.841167 18.483227 26.120721 41.946914 85.648830 354.045793 NaN
2025-11-30 13.387438 17.916542 25.403106 41.040889 84.974601 373.688134 NaN
2025-12-07 12.984106 17.416349 24.778552 40.285704 84.657846 399.180194 NaN